Data Meaning

India Reverse REPO Rate

The Reverse Repo rate is the rate at which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) borrows money from banks. Banks are inclined to lend money to the RBI as it offers a secure investment with favorable interest rates. An upward adjustment in the Reverse Repo rate may lead banks to allocate more funds to the RBI, potentially draining money from the banking system. A sudden reduction in the Reverse Repo rates would be highly accommodating for the INR, whereas an unexpected increase would be strongly favorable.

India Cash Reserve Ratio

Monetary policy involves the strategic measures adopted by a nation’s monetary authority, central bank, or government to attain specific economic objectives. It revolves around the connection between the interest rates for borrowing money and the overall money supply. Among these measures, policy rates play a pivotal role in shaping a country’s monetary policy. Adjustments to these rates impact factors such as economic growth, inflation, exchange rates, and unemployment.

Indian GDP (YoY) : Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) quantifies the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by an economy. It stands as the most comprehensive gauge of economic activity, serving as the primary indicator of overall economic well-being. Essentially, GDP measures a country’s economic output over a year. In India, GDP contributions are categorized into three primary sectors: agriculture, industry, and services. The GDP growth rate is influenced by four key components, with personal consumption being the primary driver, followed by business investment, government spending, and net trade, which collectively shape the economic landscape.

An INR-positive/bullish signal is indicated by a reading higher than expected, whereas a reading lower than anticipated should be interpreted as INR-negative/bearish.

Importance:  Medium
Source Of Report:  Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
Release URL:  http://mospi.nic.in/sdrsum0.htm

Indian WPI (Month On Month) : Wholesale Price Index

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) reflects the fluctuation in the prices of goods traded by wholesalers. A higher value signifies a more significant impact on consumer inflation.

A reading higher than anticipated is considered positive/bullish for the INR, while a lower-than-expected reading is seen as negative/bearish for the INR. The WPI index basket classifies commodities into three groups: primary articles, fuel and power, and manufactured products.

CPI Data (Month On Month) : Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is crafted to gauge the fluctuations over time in the general level of retail prices for chosen goods and services that households buy for consumption. These changes impact the real purchasing power of consumers’ income and their overall well-being. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) primarily considers CPI data when formulating its bi-monthly monetary policy.

An inflation rate higher than anticipated should be viewed as negative or bearish for the country, while a rate lower than expected should be considered positive or bullish for the country.

Importance:  High
Source Of Report:  Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry
Release URL:   https://mospi.gov.in/documents/213904/0/CPI-Changes_in_the_Revised_Series.pdf

IIP DATA (Month On Month) : Indian Industrial Production

Industrial Production gauges the shift in the overall inflation-adjusted value of output generated by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

An elevated reading should be viewed as favorable/bullish for the Indian Rupee (INR), whereas a lower-than-expected reading should be considered detrimental/bearish for the INR.

Importance:  Medium
Source Of Report:  Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
Release URL:  http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/site/inner.aspx?status=4&menu_id=79

Indian Trade Balance ( Quarter On Quarter)

The Trade Balance signifies the disparity in value between exported and imported goods and services during the specified period. A positive figure indicates a surplus, suggesting that more goods and services were exported than imported.

An economic indicator showing a figure higher than anticipated should be viewed as positive/bullish for the Indian Rupee (INR), while a figure lower than expected should be considered negative/bearish for the INR.

Importance:  Medium
Source Of Report:  Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
Release URL:  http://mospi.nic.in/sdrsum0.htm

Current Account :

The current account reflects a nation’s transactions with the rest of the world, encompassing its net trade in goods and services, earnings on cross-border investments, and transfer payments over a specified period. It provides a comprehensive overview of how an economy manages its financial interactions globally. A current account deficit indicates a saving deficit, implying that the country is living beyond its means and accruing debt. The current account includes the net total of:

Trade Balance (BOP): Exports f.o.b. minus Imports c.i.f.

General Government (BOP): Encompasses government current expenditure and receipts not allocated to trade balance or other transactions.

Transport (BOP): Covers receipts and payments for sea transport, civil aviation, passenger fares, freight, charter hire, passage money, oil bunkers, airport charges, and other disbursements.

Travel (BOP): Represents the net value of personal expenditure from tourism.

Financials and Other Services (BOP): Includes various financial and miscellaneous services.

Interest, Profits, and Dividends (BOP): Encompasses financial returns on international investments.

Transfers (BOP): Involves international transfers of funds.

This data offers a holistic understanding of how the economy engages in financial transactions on a global scale.

If the reported reading exceeds expectations, it is considered positive or bullish for the Indian Rupee (INR). Conversely, if the reading falls below expectations, it is viewed as negative or bearish for the INR.

Importance:  High
Source Of Report:  Department of Financial Services.
Release URL: https://financialservices.gov.in/

Indian M3 Money Supply

Monetary aggregates, often referred to as “money supply,” represent the total amount of currency circulating in the economy available for purchasing goods and services. M3, a comprehensive monetary aggregate, encompasses physical currency like banknotes and coins, operational deposits in the central bank, funds in current and savings accounts, money market deposits, certificates of deposit, and various other deposits and repurchase agreements.

A reading surpassing expectations is seen as positive/bullish for the INR, whereas a reading below expectations is considered negative/bearish for the INR.

Importance:  Low
Source Of Report:  Reserve Bank of India
Release URL:  http://www.rbi.org.in/home.aspx

Indian FX Reserves, USD

International reserves are a combination of foreign currency assets, gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), and reserve positions in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They encompass foreign currencies, assets denominated in foreign currencies, and a specific allocation of SDRs. These reserves serve as a precautionary measure for countries vulnerable to financial crises, allowing them to intervene in the foreign exchange market to influence or maintain the exchange rate.

A reading surpassing expectations is considered positive/bullish for the INR, while a reading falling below expectations is seen as negative/bearish for the INR.

Importance:  Low
Source Of Report:  Reserve Bank of India
Release URL:  http://www.rbi.org.in/home.aspx

Indian Bank Loan Growth

Bank Loan Growth reflects alterations in the total value of outstanding bank loans extended to individuals and businesses. It serves as a gauge of borrowing and spending tendencies, closely tied to consumer confidence.

If the reported data surpasses expectations, consider it a positive/bullish signal for the Indian Rupee (INR). Conversely, a reading lower than anticipated should be interpreted as negative/bearish for the INR.

Importance:  Low
Source Of Report:  Reserve Bank of India
Release URL:  http://www.rbi.org.in/home.aspx

Reserve Bank of India Financial Stability Report

The Financial Stability Report provides a holistic evaluation of the stability of India’s financial system, assessing its resilience to risks from global and domestic factors. The report also delves into issues related to developments and regulation within the financial sector.

Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes

The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes serve as a comprehensive record of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy-setting meeting. These minutes provide detailed insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on interest rates of particular significance are the breakdowns of MPC members and their votes on interest rates.

Reserve Bank of India Monetary and Credit Information Review

India Exports (USD)

The exports figure represents the total value of merchandise exports in US dollars on a free on board (f.o.b.) basis. A higher-than-expected number is viewed positively for the INR, while a lower-than-expected number is considered negative.

India Imports (USD)

The Imports figure quantifies goods or services legally brought into India from another country, usually for trade purposes. A lower-than-expected number is seen as positive for the INR, while a higher-than-expected number is regarded as negative.

India Infrastructure Output YoY

The infrastructure sector constitutes 26.68% of India’s industrial output.

A reading exceeding expectations is viewed as positive/bullish for the INR, while a reading below expectations should be considered negative/bearish for the INR.

India Foreign Debt (USD)

A level of a nation’s debt acquired from foreign lenders, encompassing commercial banks, governments, or international financial institutions. A reading below expectations is considered positive for the INR, while a reading surpassing expectations is regarded as negative.

India Deposit Growth YoY

In India, deposit growth refers to the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits.

The Credit-Deposit ratio (CD ratio) in banking indicates the proportion of deposits that banks have utilized for extending loans. If the CD ratio is, for instance, 75%, it signifies that three-fourths of the deposits have been disbursed as loans. A low CD ratio suggests modest credit expansion compared to deposit growth, while a high CD ratio indicates robust demand for credit in a scenario of relatively slower deposit growth. In late 2016, during demonetization, the CD ratio hit historic lows of under 70% when banks were preoccupied with currency exchange, resulting in fewer new loans. The value of deposits in India increased 13.4 percent year-on-year in the fortnight ending December 1st, 2023. Deposit Growth in India averaged 14.98 percent from 1998 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 29.30 percent in January of 2008 and a record low of 2.70 percent in December of 2017. source: Reserve Bank of India

BRICS Summit

BRICS is an intergovernmental organization consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. It unites five major developing nations, representing approximately 41% of the global population, 24% of the global GDP, and 16% of global trade. Initially identified to showcase investment opportunities, BRICS fosters collaboration in commerce, politics, and culture among its member nations.

India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Fuel YoY

The WPI index monitors and records fluctuations in the prices of all fuel-related goods at stages preceding retail distribution.

India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Food YoY

The WPI index monitors and records fluctuations in the prices of all food-related goods at stages preceding retail distribution.

Reserve Bank of India Monthly Bulletin

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Bulletin offers articles, speeches, and statistical tables, providing a comprehensive perspective on current and future economic conditions from the bank’s standpoint.

Reserve Bank of India Foreign Exchange Reserves Report

The Reserve Bank of India issues biannual reports on the management of foreign exchange reserves to enhance transparency and disclosure. These reports, referencing positions at the end of March and end of September, consist of two parts. Part I details movements in foreign exchange reserves, external liabilities compared to reserves, and reserve adequacy. Part II covers reserve management objectives, statutory provisions, risk management practices, and the RBI’s transparency and disclosure practices.